Climate Hazard Diagnostics - Wildfire
Description
This dataset quantifies fire hazard intensity, fire danger days, fire occurrence probability, and asset average annual loss at 0.1° (~11 km) spatial resolution, with global coverage. Data includes a historical baseline (1980) and projections for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.
a70e1872…Usage notes
Spatial coverage is limited to land surfaces. The historical baseline represents a modelled pre-acceleration climate state, not actual conditions in 1980. Average annual loss baseline reflects present-day calibrated conditions rather than a modelled 1980 climate state. Future years should be interpreted relative to the baseline, not in isolation as absolute hazard levels. Meaningful differences among climate scenarios typically occur from 2050 onwards. This dataset is designed for portfolio-scale screening and comparative scenario analysis, not site-specific fire behaviour modelling.
Variables
average_annual_loss_baseline
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for the historical baseline (1980). Data is the product of fire intensity, fire occurrence probability, and a damage calibration factor derived from 1990-2024 disaster losses across 27 countries.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1, representing mean annual proportional loss for all building types and materials. Absolute asset-level losses can be calculated by multiplying this variable by an asset's value. Values < 0.001 typically indicate low physical risk exposure and values > 0.05 typically indicate high physical risk exposure. The damage calibration factor is anchored to present-day conditions (~2025), making data suitable for current-day risk screening alongside future scenario comparison. Average annual loss is intended for portfolio-scale analysis rather than precise asset-level loss estimation. This variable is only available for the historical baseline year (1980), with all other years containing null values.
average_annual_loss_rcp2p6
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP2.6. See average annual loss baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
average_annual_loss_rcp4p5
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP4.5. See average annual loss baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
average_annual_loss_rcp6p0
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP6.0. See average annual loss baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
average_annual_loss_rcp8p5
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP8.5. See average annual loss baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
fire_danger_days_baseline
Description
Annual count of days exceeding high fire danger thresholds for the historical baseline (1980). Thresholds are the local 95th percentile of daily Fire Weather Index for a pre-industrial reference period (1850-1900), so vary by location.
Usage notes
Fire danger days measures fire weather hazard rather than realised fire occurrence, which also depends on fuel availability, ignition sources, and land management. Baseline values typically range from 10-30+ days per year depending on region, reflecting warming already experienced since pre-industrial times. This variable is only available for the historical baseline year (1980), with all other years containing null values.
fire_danger_days_rcp2p6
Description
Annual count of days exceeding high fire danger thresholds for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP2.6. See fire danger days baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values should be interpreted in comparison to fire danger days baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
fire_danger_days_rcp4p5
Description
Annual count of days exceeding high fire danger thresholds for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP4.5. See fire danger days baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values should be interpreted in comparison to fire danger days baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
fire_danger_days_rcp6p0
Description
Annual count of days exceeding high fire danger thresholds for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP6.0. See fire danger days baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values should be interpreted in comparison to fire danger days baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
fire_danger_days_rcp8p5
Description
Annual count of days exceeding high fire danger thresholds for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP8.5. See fire danger days baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values should be interpreted in comparison to fire danger days baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
intensity_baseline
Description
Severity of extreme fire weather conditions for the historical baseline (1980). Data is generated from the power-enhanced normalised maximum Fire Weather Index (FWI), adjusted for vegetation type and topography.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is only available for the historical baseline year (1980), with all other years containing null values.
intensity_rcp2p6
Description
Severity of extreme fire weather conditions for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP2.6. See intensity baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to intensity baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
intensity_rcp4p5
Description
Severity of extreme fire weather conditions for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP4.5. See intensity baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to intensity baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
intensity_rcp6p0
Description
Severity of extreme fire weather conditions for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP6.0. See intensity baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to intensity baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
intensity_rcp8p5
Description
Severity of extreme fire weather conditions for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP8.5. See intensity baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to intensity baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
probability_baseline
Description
Annual probability of fire occurrence for the historical baseline (1980). Data is generated from 24 years of MODIS and Sentinel-3 satellite-observed burned area, integrating weather, fuels, ignition sources, and suppression effectiveness over the observation period.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is only available for the historical baseline year (1980), with all other years containing null values.
probability_rcp2p6
Description
Annual probability of fire occurrence for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP2.6. Data is projected from calibrated relationships between Fire Weather Index conditions and satellite-observed burn frequency, adjusted for vegetation, topography, and anthropogenic influence. See probability baseline variable for empirical basis.
Usage notes
Baseline and scenario variables use different methodologies. Scenario values are projected from climate model outputs using calibration factors that link fire weather to historical burn patterns. Values should be interpreted in comparison to probability baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
probability_rcp4p5
Description
Annual probability of fire occurrence for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP4.5. See probability RCP2.6 variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Baseline and scenario variables use different methodologies. Scenario values are projected from climate model outputs using calibration factors that link fire weather to historical burn patterns. Values should be interpreted in comparison to probability baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
probability_rcp6p0
Description
Annual probability of fire occurrence for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP6.0. See probability RCP2.6 variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Baseline and scenario variables use different methodologies. Scenario values are projected from climate model outputs using calibration factors that link fire weather to historical burn patterns. Values should be interpreted in comparison to probability baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
probability_rcp8p5
Description
Annual probability of fire occurrence for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP8.5. See probability RCP2.6 variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Baseline and scenario variables use different methodologies. Scenario values are projected from climate model outputs using calibration factors that link fire weather to historical burn patterns. Values should be interpreted in comparison to probability baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
Pricing
Please see this document for more details.
| Volume | Price |
|---|---|
| Any (Entry tier) | $5/ha |
| Any (Subscription tier) | $0.5/ha |
Resources
Provider
Emmi
emmi.ioEmmi is a climate data provider based in Sydney (Australia). Emmi produces data across emissions, transition risk, and physical risk, including hazard modeling, temperature alignment, emissions targets and forecasts, and market-based physical risk across multiple scenarios.