Climate Hazard Diagnostics - Cyclones
Description
This dataset quantifies tropical cyclone intensity, maximum sustained wind speed (m/s), exceedance probability, and asset average annual loss at 0.1° (~11 km) spatial resolution. The dataset has global ocean and coastal coverage for a historical baseline (1980) and the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.
158e774c…Usage notes
Spatial coverage is limited to oceans and coastal land surfaces between 40°S and 60°N. The historical baseline represents a modelled pre-acceleration climate state, not actual conditions in 1980. Future years should be interpreted relative to the baseline, not in isolation as absolute hazard levels. Average annual loss is calibrated to present-day conditions (~2025), enabling assessments of current risk to assets alongside change over time. Meaningful differences among climate scenarios typically occur from 2050 onwards. Cyclone probability values are physically correlated with coastal flood probability values from the Climate Hazard Diagnostics - Coastal Floods dataset, so should not be summed when calculating compound risk.
Variables
average_annual_loss_baseline
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for the historical baseline (1980). Data is the product of cyclone intensity, cyclone probability, and a damage calibration factor derived from 1990-2024 disaster losses across 27 countries.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1, representing mean annual proportional loss for all building types and materials. Absolute asset-level losses can be calculated by multiplying this variable by an asset's value. Values < 0.001 typically indicate low physical risk exposure and values > 0.05 typically indicate high physical risk exposure. The damage calibration factor is anchored to present-day conditions (~2025), making data suitable for current-day risk screening alongside future scenario comparison. Average annual loss is intended for portfolio-scale analysis rather than precise asset-level loss estimation. This variable is only available for the historical baseline year (1980), with all other years containing null values.
average_annual_loss_rcp2p6
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP2.6. See average annual loss baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
average_annual_loss_rcp4p5
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP4.5. See average annual loss baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
average_annual_loss_rcp6p0
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP6.0. See average annual loss baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
average_annual_loss_rcp8p5
Description
Expected annual damage as a fraction of asset value for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP8.5. See average annual loss baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
intensity_baseline
Description
Severity of extreme wind conditions for the historical baseline (1980). Data is generated from the power-enhanced normalised maximum sustained wind speed, derived from wind speed baseline variable.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is only available for the historical baseline year (1980), with all other years containing null values.
intensity_rcp2p6
Description
Severity of extreme wind conditions for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP2.6. See intensity baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to intensity baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
intensity_rcp4p5
Description
Severity of extreme wind conditions for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP4.5. See intensity baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to intensity baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
intensity_rcp6p0
Description
Severity of extreme wind conditions for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP6.0. See intensity baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to intensity baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
intensity_rcp8p5
Description
Severity of extreme wind conditions for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP8.5. See intensity baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to intensity baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
land_mask_baseline
Description
Indicates whether a pixel contains land.
Usage notes
Land is defined as non-ocean.
| Index | Name |
|---|---|
| 0 | Ocean |
| 1 | Land |
land_mask_rcp2p6
Description
Indicates whether a pixel contains land.
Usage notes
Land is defined as non-ocean.
| Index | Name |
|---|---|
| 0 | Ocean |
| 1 | Land |
land_mask_rcp4p5
Description
Indicates whether a pixel contains land.
Usage notes
Land is defined as non-ocean.
| Index | Name |
|---|---|
| 0 | Ocean |
| 1 | Land |
land_mask_rcp6p0
Description
Indicates whether a pixel contains land.
Usage notes
Land is defined as non-ocean.
| Index | Name |
|---|---|
| 0 | Ocean |
| 1 | Land |
land_mask_rcp8p5
Description
Indicates whether a pixel contains land.
Usage notes
Land is defined as non-ocean.
| Index | Name |
|---|---|
| 0 | Ocean |
| 1 | Land |
probability_baseline
Description
Annual probability of major hurricane wind conditions (Category 3+ winds) for the historical baseline (1980). Data is computed across a 10,000-year STORM simulation, with probabilities representing the annual likelihood that wind speed exceeds established intensity thresholds.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. This variable is only available for the historical baseline year (1980), with all other years containing null values.
probability_rcp2p6
Description
Annual probability of major hurricane wind conditions (Category 3+ winds) for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP2.6. See probability baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to probability baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
probability_rcp4p5
Description
Annual probability of major hurricane wind conditions (Category 3+ winds) for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP4.5. See probability baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to probability baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
probability_rcp6p0
Description
Annual probability of major hurricane wind conditions (Category 3+ winds) for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP6.0. See probability baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to probability baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
probability_rcp8p5
Description
Annual probability of major hurricane wind conditions (Category 3+ winds) for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP8.5. See probability baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
Values range from 0 to 1. Values should be interpreted in comparison to probability baseline variable. This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
wind_speed_mps_baseline
Description
Maximum sustained wind speed of cyclone events for the historical baseline (1980). Data is the peak 10-minute wind speed experienced at each grid cell across all synthetic storms and respective years from STORM.
Usage notes
Wind speed values can be used as inputs to custom vulnerability or engineering functions. This variable is only available for the historical baseline year (1980), with all other years containing null values.
wind_speed_mps_rcp2p6
Description
Maximum sustained wind speed of cyclone events for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP2.6. See wind speed baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
wind_speed_mps_rcp4p5
Description
Maximum sustained wind speed of cyclone events for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP4.5. See wind speed baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
wind_speed_mps_rcp6p0
Description
Maximum sustained wind speed of cyclone events for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP6.0. See wind speed baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
wind_speed_mps_rcp8p5
Description
Maximum sustained wind speed of cyclone events for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under IPCC climate scenario RCP8.5. See wind speed baseline variable for methodology.
Usage notes
This variable is available for years 2030, 2050, and 2080. The historical baseline year (1980) contains null values.
Pricing
Please see this document for more details.
| Volume | Price |
|---|---|
| Any (Entry tier) | $5/ha |
| Any (Subscription tier) | $0.5/ha |
Resources
Provider
Emmi
emmi.ioEmmi is a climate data provider based in Sydney (Australia). Emmi produces data across emissions, transition risk, and physical risk, including hazard modeling, temperature alignment, emissions targets and forecasts, and market-based physical risk across multiple scenarios.